Is the employment population increasing or decreas

2022-08-09
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Is the employment population increasing or decreasing in the era of industry 4.0

from now to 2025, industry 4.0 will promote the huge transformation of the existing industrial labor structure. Taking Germany as an example, we studied and analyzed the impact of digital industrial technology on 40 categories of jobs in 23 industries. Digital industrial technology will reduce a certain number of jobs, but it will also bring more employment opportunities

The steam engine in the 19th century, the electric power in the early 20th century and the automation technology in the 1970s have brought earth shaking changes to industrial production. However, the tide of each technological revolution has not reduced the overall employment opportunities. Although the number of manufacturing jobs will decrease, new jobs will continue to emerge, followed by the demand for new skills. Today, the manufacturing industry is experiencing the fourth industrial revolution. The rise of new digital industrial technology is known as industry 4.0, and a new round of labor force transformation is imminent

how will the new round of industrial revolution unfold? Will it create jobs or destroy jobs? How will the job requirements evolve? Which job skills will be favored? It is necessary for business leaders and policy makers to understand the answers to these questions, which will help them fully grasp the opportunities brought by industry 4.0 by reasonably arranging employees with appropriate skills

in order to better understand the development and changes of labor structure in the era of industry 4.0, we analyzed the impact of a number of new technologies on the layout of the world's leading German manufacturing industry. We found that industry 4.0 can help manufacturing enterprises improve competitiveness and expand the workforce while improving productivity. Due to the increasingly capital intensive development of manufacturing, traditional areas with low labor costs will gradually lose their advantages, and manufacturing enterprises will be more willing to return the previously outsourced production work to China again. Industry 4.0 also helps manufacturing enterprises create new jobs to meet the greater demand generated by the development of existing markets and the introduction of new products and services. In sharp contrast, in each previous technological revolution, although the output will increase significantly, the production and manufacturing jobs will be reduced. For example, from 1997 to 2003, automation and offshore outsourcing reduced 18% of German manufacturing jobs, but at the same time, production remained rising

in this report, we discuss how industry 4.0 will change the pattern of manufacturing jobs from now until 2025. We show the quantitative modeling results of labor market evolution and the qualitative insights obtained through expert interviews

usage scenario analysis of industry 4.0

scientific and technological progress has laid the foundation for Industry 4.0. In the next 10 to 15 years, scientific and technological innovation will reshape the business and economic landscape (see BCG's focus report "industry 4.0: the future of productivity and the development of manufacturing" published in April 2015). In order to quantify the impact of technology on industrial labor, we studied the ten most influential use scenarios, revealing the impact of technology on 40 types of jobs in 23 industries in Germany (see Figure 1). For the same type of work, although the requirements of different positions for labor skills are related, they are also different to a certain extent

in order to determine the specific impact of each use scenario on the number of people employed in different types of jobs, we worked with 20 industry experts to jointly analyze how each use scenario can improve the productivity level of existing jobs or create new employment opportunities. We start with specific departments, then extrapolate the research results to the level of enterprises, industries and related industries, and finally upgrade to the level of the overall manufacturing industry in Germany

in order to determine the specific impact of each use scenario on the number of people employed in different types of jobs, we worked with 20 industry experts to jointly analyze how each use scenario can improve the productivity level of existing jobs or create new employment opportunities. We start with specific departments, then extrapolate the research results to the level of enterprises, industries and related industries, and finally upgrade to the level of the overall manufacturing industry in Germany

it should be emphasized that our analysis focuses on the driving effect of industry 4.0 on employment growth, rather than predicting the changes in the overall employment situation during the study period. Our data cannot explain the reasons for the overall development of the market or the increase in productivity, and there will be huge differences between different industries

we selected these 10 usage scenarios that also have obvious competitiveness in terms of product cost performance and production efficiency based on the following criteria: the overall impact on the labor force, and whether employees are required to have new skills in order to complete relevant work. The following examples show the impact of multiple technology applications on the workforce

quality management driven by big data: a semiconductor manufacturing enterprise uses algorithms to analyze real-time and historical data of quality management, identify quality problems and their causes, and accurately find ways to minimize product defects and waste. Applying big data to the manufacturing industry will reduce the number of personnel specializing in quality management and increase the demand for industrial data scientists

robot assisted production: a plastic manufacturing enterprise uses robots that are highly similar to human beings and have similar hand functions to work for it. These robots are easy to accept new tasks when the main machine of the experimental machine is installed. The built-in safety sensor and camera allow the robot to interact with the surrounding environment. The scientific and technological progress represented by robots will significantly reduce the number of manual jobs in production links, such as those in assembly and packaging, but at the same time, it will also create new jobs, that is, robot coordinators (we will describe this in detail later)

driverless logistics tools: a food and beverage manufacturing enterprise adopts an automated transportation system, which can operate independently in the factory, thus reducing the demand for logistics personnel

production line simulation: a consumer goods manufacturing enterprise uses innovative software to simulate before installing the production line, and then uses the simulation results to optimize operations. The application of such technology will increase the demand for industrial engineers and simulation experts

intelligent supply network: an international consumer goods enterprise uses advanced technology to control the entire supply network, thereby optimizing supply decisions. The application of technology will reduce the number of Posts engaged in operation planning, and create a demand for supply chain coordination posts, so as to better deal with the demand for small batch delivery

predictive maintenance: a wind turbine manufacturer provides its customers with real-time remote monitoring of equipment and round the clock diagnostic center services. If a vibration monitoring sensor in the turbine detects an abnormality, it will automatically alarm immediately. Monitoring and sensor technology enables manufacturers to maintain equipment before it breaks down, which will promote the significant growth of jobs related to system design, it and data science. Such technological progress will also spawn a new job, that is, field service engineers with digital AIDS, but it will also lead to a decline in the demand for traditional technicians

machine is service: a German compressor manufacturer does not directly sell machines, but sells compressed air as a service. Enterprises install compressors for users, and maintain and upgrade the equipment as needed. Such a business model not only helps to increase production and service jobs, but also requires manufacturers to expand their sales force

self organizing production: a gear manufacturing enterprise has specially designed the product line so that it can automatically coordinate and optimize the utilization rate of each link. Although such automated design will reduce the demand for personnel engaged in production planning, it will also increase the demand for data modeling and analysis experts

additive manufacturing precision parts: technologies such as selective laser sintering and 3D printing enable manufacturers to build complex parts in one stop, eliminating the need for parts assembly and inventory. In the field of R & D centers and engineering, new jobs related to 3D computer-aided design and 3D modeling are emerging, while at the same time, jobs engaged in parts assembly are decreasing

carry out work, maintenance and service with the help of Augmented Reality Technology: employees of a German logistics enterprise use glasses with augmented reality function to view dispatch information and location information, including accurately identifying the location of goods on the shelf, and automatically scanning the code. This system can also remotely assist in basic maintenance tasks and provide customer specific guidance on goods packaging. The use of augmented reality technology greatly improves the processing efficiency of maintenance technicians, and requires enterprises to establish a wide range of new capabilities in research and development, it and data assistance systems

changes in employment level

according to the situation shown in these 10 use scenarios, in order to predict the impact of industry 4.0 on German industrial labor force from 2015 to 2025, we analyzed a series of scenarios from the perspective of two variables. These two variables include: the additional income growth caused by technological progress, and the penetration rate of advanced technology (see Figure 2). We also used the proprietary quantitative model of Boston Consulting Group (BCG) to analyze the impact of industry 4.0 on the workforce of specific companies

in the era of industry 4.0, will the employed population increase or decrease

manufacturing enterprises can promote revenue growth through the following methods:

adopt more flexible production lines, robots and 3D printing technology to provide more customized products

adopt innovative business models such as machine as a service to open up new markets

use augmented reality technology, To expand after-sales service and develop new services

take more measures to meet the growing demand for industrial 4.0 Technology (such as automated robots)

all scenarios show that the popularity of advanced technological achievements will bring about a substantial increase in productivity, thereby reducing the number of labor required to achieve fixed output. Although some jobs will disappear, the cooperation between man and machine will be closer

in the most likely basic scenario, we believe that German enterprises will use industry 4.0 to achieve an additional annual growth of 1%, and the popularity of advanced technological achievements will reach 50%. In such a scenario, industry 4.0 will add about 350000 jobs to Germany, an increase of 5% compared with the 7million labor force in 23 manufacturing industries currently involved in the study. The popularization of robotics and computer technology will reduce about 610000 assembly and production jobs, but the new 960000 jobs will offset the reduction of assembly and production jobs. An additional 210000 highly skilled talents are needed in it, analysis and R & D fields; In addition to the line automatic fracture diagram in Figure 2, the income growth opportunities described above will also bring about 760000 new jobs, all of which are the source of new employment opportunities

in the basic scenario, through the analysis of different types of jobs and industries, we find that the situation is quite different (see Figure 3). In general, Germany

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